2026 outlook: a world in crisis

Many individuals and institutions end one year or begin the next by predicting what issues will dominate the public sphere in the coming twelve months. These prognostications come from academic think tanks, media outlets, political and business groups and even from astrologers, mystics and spiritualists. In my survey of a range of observers, from business councils to university campuses to news magazines, I haven’t found too much that is positive.

Business groups enter 2026 with many concerns. The list includes cyber-security, as industrial espionage, hacking, scams and other forms of attack cut into the ability of corporations to do their work and make their profits. As well, business sees AI, Artificial Intelligence, as something yet to be evaluated and harnessed. It may turbo-charge our economies, or it may cause drops in employment leading to greater poverty and less consumerism.

Natural disasters, caused by climate change in particular, are feared by business. Recent storms and flooding around the world are not good for people and cause great economic concern, let alone humanitarian. Geopolitical conflict fits in nicely with this, as conflict and uncertainty in Europe the past few years, with Latin America and parts of Asia added more recently, make for a poor outlook. Centuries ago, philosopher Emmanuel Kant, in his book, Perpetual Peace, wondered by people go to war, as it kills or disables loved ones, destroys property and brings down economies.

Businesses are concerned about supply chains, which are affected by war but also by social conflict. We know this in Canada with recent labour disruptions with airlines and Canada Post. They also fear disinformation and misinformation, which have ballooned with social media, creating even greater social tensions and lack of rational knowledge. Trade has been disrupted as well, especially with current tariffs imposed by the U.S., ending what business has seen as the benefits of free trade. 2026 may answer the questions of the fate of our US-Mexico-Canada trade arrangement, CUSMA.

A most intriguing and insightful thought from business 2026 prognosticators is what they call “polycrisis” and that is what we may have now, when all of the above factors become reality at the same time. War, climate events, data breaches, strikes or lockouts, tariffs and more are all mixed together in a frightening and destabilizing stew.

From the news media and academic spheres, 2026 also looks like a challenging year. The “political revolution” in the United States ranks at the top, in how the current administration is fundamentally reshaping U.S. policies and procedures internally and externally, from how the White House and presidency operates, to its “peace/war” agenda, to the environment and health care. When the Berlin Wall came down in 1989, some observers predicted that we’d reached the “end of history,” that is finally a world of liberal democracy, capitalist growth and reduced tension. Not long after, however, history started up again, and the current leadership in Russia and the U.S. have ramped up “history” so that a very different end might actually be around the corner!

Another great concern is that the leading European nations are currently led by relatively weak and unpopular governments with strong populist parties on both political extremes actively seeking to take over. This has led to Brexit, as one example, but also to a less than definitive response to the invasion of Ukraine. An emboldened Russia is now sending drones to harass other European neighbours and no real solution is at hand. It may seem that between geopolitics and global business, the three main powers — the US, Russia and China — will use 2026 to divide up the world amongst themselves. Territory, trade and technology — that is what will be fought over in a 1984-style scenario.

There is always more for each of us, as individuals, families and nations, to deal with as the years pass by. We may have our own personal health or financial challenges. We may worry about family members or friends who struggle, are in conflict with others, are short on cash or unemployed and so on. These “micro” situations impact the larger stage of community and country. And the “macro” — our economy, our relations with other nations — impact how we are doing at the personal level. As they say: what goes around, comes around. 2026 will be one of those years. We can hang on, keep informed, make good decisions when called upon and see how things turn out.

» Zack Gross is president of the Marquis Project, a Brandon-Westman based international development organization.