Leaders sleep while a crisis approaches

Southern Manitoba is facing an unavoidable, possibly permanent reduction in its water supply as a consequence of climate change. That threatens the availability of drinking water in communities like Brandon, as well as the economic viability of the entire province.

Those are just some conclusions to be drawn from a report released last month by Concordia University researchers — a document that has received surprisingly little attention from our elected leaders and the media.

Entitled “Creeping snow drought threatens Canada’s water supply,” the document reveals that the volume of snow in Western Canada, and the moisture content in that snow, steadily declined from 2000 through 2019. It says that “snow water is key to water supply in cold regions and beyond,” and that the losses “threaten water supply in a quarter of the country, where ~86% of its population reside.”

The analysis concluded that 14 of 25 major drainage basins in Canada are impacted by the decline, and that the two watersheds most at risk of reduced snow water are the Okanagan–Similkameen basin in British Columbia and the Assiniboine-Red River basin in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

The scientists noted that the Assiniboine-Red River basin is “highly vulnerable” because snow water provides approximately one-half of the water available in the region. They say that percentage is the highest “in the populous southern parts of the domain.” In short, Manitoba and Saskatchewan could be facing a return to “dirty thirties” conditions, but for the long term.

The report also points out that, given the extensive agricultural activity in the Assiniboine-Red River basin and the reality that the basin has Canada’s second-lowest water yield, “the continuation of (snow water availability) losses severely impacts food production in this region.”

Reduced water levels in the Assiniboine-Red River basin will cause lower crop production levels. With the critical role played by agriculture in the Westman economy, lower yields will result in reduced farm incomes, and that will hurt economic activity in Brandon and surrounding area.

Finally, the report notes there is a “master agreement” between the governments of Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Canada regarding how water is shared on the Prairies, but ominously warns that “streamflow losses at the headwaters, particularly when combined with earlier peak timing, can lead to failure in maintaining the Master Agreement without adaptations.”

That means we must also be concerned that lower water levels in the Assiniboine-Red River basin could eventually impact how much water Saskatchewan allows to flow into Manitoba via the Assiniboine.

Some might think or hope the current situation is temporary, and that our weather will eventually return to normal. The report makes clear, however, that the snow melt problem will not solve itself and will worsen going forward. Ali Nazemi, a co-author of the report and associate professor of engineering at Concordia, told the CBC that “We should expect some vulnerabilities that are going to be intensifying in the future.”

Given the troubling implications of all of that information, and the growing urgency of the situation, it is surprising that governments at all levels are doing so little to get ahead of the problem.

In October of 2025, the province released its “Path to net zero” climate plan for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Nowhere in the document does it mention or consider the impact of those emissions on snow melt and water levels in the province.

That’s a glaring omission.

Local leaders talk about increasing Brandon’s population to 80,000 or more, but we should be taking steps to ensure we will have enough water to meet the needs of the city’s current population level. That should include the implementation of water conservation measures and discussing the construction of another large water reservoir on the Assiniboine, upstream of Brandon.

Beyond those measures, our population growth plans and economic development strategy must each be amended to factor in the likelihood of a reduced water supply.

With farmland throughout Westman likely to become increasingly dry, we should be taking steps to limit soil erosion, develop crop varieties capable of surviving dry conditions and ensure the long-term availability of feed for livestock.

On top of that, we must also be preparing for the impact that long-term drought conditions will have on farm values, ag financing and the fiscal viability of rural municipalities and school divisions.

At the provincial level, low water levels over the past several years have prevented Manitoba Hydro from operating its hydro-electric generating facilities at peak production levels. If lower water levels will be the new norm, that also threatens the financial viability of that critical Crown corporation.

Given that possibility, we should be re-evaluating Hydro’s energy production plans and capabilities in the context of the new reality. Huge hydro-electric facilities in the north may not be able to produce as much power as they have in the past. If that happens, how will we make up the electricity shortfall?

Finally, we need a clear, binding commitment from the Saskatchewan government that it won’t horde water from the Assiniboine before it crosses into Manitoba.

Those are just a fraction of the many issues that must be addressed. At present, they aren’t even on the governments’ radar. That is far from a trivial matter. For more than a century, Manitobans have assumed there would always be an ample supply of water to meet the range of needs in the province. That assumption is no longer valid. A serious, sustained drought is coming our way, and we must start preparing for it.

The stakes are high, and the clock is ticking.