The AI snake is eating its tail

Computer technology has become the dominant force in the modern world. New technology subsuming older technology is the raison d’être of modern capitalism.

Pioneers of this new digital age took advantage of the profound difference between what they were building and what came before, advancing their influence and predominance. Little by little, the advantages ate away at the influence of non-digital technology, until the snake consumed most of modern information technology.

And now it is eating itself.

The beginning of the modern era of computing began with the Graphical User Interface (GUI, pronounced “gooey”). Back in the ’80s this was a new commercial technology exclusive to Apple’s Lisa computer and, later, the McIntosh.

A year later, Microsoft launched Windows 1.0 with its own GUI for the world. Apple sued Microsoft for copyright infringement.

The legal fight was pivotal in determining how copyright would apply to software, a crucial turning point that would shape the digital technology industry. The “look and feel” lawsuit, as it was commonly named, was fought on whether Apple’s GUI was copyright-protected and Microsoft had violated that copyright by introducing Windows.

Microsoft won the case, the courts ruling that although the software and the specific code underlying Apple’s GUI was protected by copyright, the “look and feel” of it was not. A GUI was considered an “idea” and not a specific expression of that idea, therefore Windows was legal.

Through this ruling and business savvy, Microsoft overtook Apple in the personal computer market.

So why does that matter now? Software development used to be very labour-intensive. Development of a product such as Microsoft Office could involve hundreds of programmers coding a million lines of code or more in years of development.

It is with this in mind that I was fascinated to learn that a single programmer was able to guide the creation of an analog of Microsoft Office and other popular commercial software in a matter of two weeks. Of course, artificial intelligence was key to the development of the free, open-source product called ArtCraft.

ArtCraft can exist because of the precedent Microsoft set when fighting Apple over the GUI, and the compute power and programming abilities of AI. Artificial intelligence, essentially, is a computer program. A computer program that is very good at computer programming.

ArtCraft was created using Anthropic’s Claude. It was engineered to replicate the “look and feel” of their respective analogs (which is allowed), and doesn’t need to use any proprietary, patented or trademarked code because it can create its own code for the functionality required.

In essence, due to a combination of AI’s coding ability and previous court decisions regarding the “look and feel” of software, virtually identical software can be created.

High-end software is expensive. As someone who has spent a good deal of time trying to get funding for industry-standard software, inexpensive alternatives are a welcome relief. But it could also mean that the economics of software development is broken. If AI can help anyone create an app quickly with very few skilled workers, the supply-and-demand balance required to create value is destroyed. There could literally be an endless supply of custom apps created by anyone. Ultimately this could drop the price of all software to zero.

The implications for the software industry could be stark. Which is why it is curious that Microsoft recently announced a voluntary buyout for up to 60,000 employees, a quarter of its workforce. It cites the need to concentrate on supporting the development of AI data centres as a reason.

Microsoft may be reducing jobs to support the buildout of its own data centres to compete with AI from Anthropic and others. But what is also likely true is that it will use its data centres to replace many workers that used to create its products and improve development efficiency. Microsoft could also realize that AI coding, available to anyone, may make its software much less valuable and therefore must get into the AI game quickly or be left behind. But it is already the tail.

AI companies are racing to outdo each other to be the new head of the snake, the technology that is going to be all-powerful, and if you believe them, the last technology ever invented by humans.

AI is now the technological snake devouring all previous technologies that led to it, and yet, with all its power, even its creators are unsure what the future holds. The extreme positions are that AI will create a utopian heaven that will solve all human problems or a Faustian hell that will destroy everyone, a godlike technology being put into the world with humanity at stake.

And like a familiar saga reflecting the fate of humanity, the downfall began with the bite of an apple.

» David Nutbean is a former technology administrator and computer science instructor.