Prairie folks lead the pack by putting us all in harm’s way

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 19/08/2020 (2024 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It would seem that Western Canada is a victim of its own success when it comes to the public health battle against COVID-19.

’Round about the month of June, Manitoba, Alberta, Saskatchewan and British Columbia were all experiencing a notable decline in new coronavirus cases, even as the virus continued to rage in Ontario and Quebec.

Our neighbours in Saskatchewan, much like here in Manitoba, were announcing a relatively small numbers of cases — generally fewer than four — between May 21 and June 16. And although Alberta and B.C. numbers were somewhat higher in those weeks, Alberta was well down from its peak of 336 cases set on April 23 to more manageable numbers in the 20s and 30s. B.C. too was way down in the teens from its March 25 high of 91 cases.

And in Manitoba, there were several days in May, June and July that we saw no new cases at all. In fact, for a 13-day stretch of zero new cases, it almost felt as if we had beat it.

Western Canada had flattened that curve, we thought, and we were congratulating ourselves on our hard work and our adherence to the public health recommendations of good hand hygiene, staying home and social distancing.

And so Manitoba entered Phase 3 of the province’s “roadmap for recovery” on July 21, which dropped the requirement of residents of and visitors to the other three Western provinces, as well as northwestern Ontario, the Yukon, Northwest and Nunavut territories where numbers have been consistently low.

Fast-forward several weeks later and all four Prairie provinces are experiencing surges in COVID-19 cases. As Maclean’s magazine reported Tuesday, in the seven days ending Aug. 17, the four provinces reported a total of 1,558 new cases, or 56.5 per cent of the national tally.

“In the three weeks between July 26 and Aug. 15, these four provinces reported 55 deaths,” Maclean’s wrote. “In contrast, Ontario, which has 38 per cent of the population, reported 33 deaths.”

The news magazine suggested that at least part of the reason for Ontario’s lower numbers is that nearly all of Ontario’s population lives in areas that have mandates requiring masks be worn in public or commercial spaces.

Contrast that with the fact that only approximately 60 per cent of Albertans are under similar mask mandates, and that B.C., Saskatchewan and Manitoba don’t have mask requirements in their respective municipalities at all … at least not yet.

These numbers are compounded by a recent poll conducted by the Angus Reid Institute that found that about three in 10 residents in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta are more likely to be “cynical spreaders” — those who flout pandemic guidelines, socialize with larger groups (including strangers) and reject the use of masks in society.

The survey of 1,500 Canadians also collected data from groups they call “infection fighters,” who follow all recommendations, and “inconsistent” fighters, who are more strict on hygiene restrictions but may be more lax on other rules. Manitoba tied with British Columbia for having the most people in the “inconsistent” group in the country, at 42 per cent of those surveyed in these two provinces.

Most disturbingly, the survey found that Manitoba is the second-worst province in the country when it comes to its percentage of “cynical spreaders,” beaten only by Saskatchewan in that sense, and tying with Alberta.

The poll results also suggest that those who voted for the federal Conservative party were four times more likely to be in the “cynical spreaders” group, meaning that — like in the United States — it seems that how Canadians view the pandemic and our government’s response to it has broken down along party affiliations.

As of Tuesday afternoon, with the addition of another 17 new cases of COVID-19 in the province, our total number of lab-confirmed cases in Manitoba reached 748. While the gross number of cases is relatively small in comparison to those of Alberta or even those of Ontario and Quebec, as of Monday’s count, Manitoba held the second-highest number of active cases numbers per capita of all the provinces and territories. Alberta had the highest per capita number.

Last week, Dr. Brent Roussin stated that Manitoba had lost sight of the fundamentals — physical distancing, handwashing, etc. — and suggested that “all Manitobans should be ensuring they have access to a mask.”

You may also recall that the province announced a new paid advertising campaign last week called #RestartMB that is touting the province’s “roadmap to recovery” from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time it was announced one week ago, the Pallister government had already spent $250,000 on the campaign in radio spots and erecting billboards, with plans to further purchase print and digital ads.

The campaign suggests that Manitoba is both “ready for what lies ahead” as in a return to school and restarting services, but also calls for Manitobans to continue to follow public health advice.

If the per capita numbers and the poll numbers mentioned above are accurate — and we have little reason to dispute them — the province may want to focus more on the second part of that messaging, for apparently several months of messaging by Dr. Roussin and his team as well as our Tory premier didn’t take with far too many of us.