This election looms large

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 05/09/2023 (1004 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Sometime this morning, Manitoba Premier Heather Stefanson will likely launch the provincial general election campaign, with Oct. 3 as the expected election date.

If this election was being called a year ago, Stefanson’s Progressive Conservative government would have been headed for an electoral wipeout. Indeed, a poll by Probe Research last September found that the opposition New Democrats enjoyed the support of 44 per cent of Manitobans, with the Tories well back at 37 per cent. The Liberals were at just 15 per cent.

Inside Winnipeg is where Manitoba elections are won and lost, however, and last year’s numbers revealed that the NDP held a staggering 52-25 lead over the Tories, with the Liberals at just 19 per cent. With numbers like that inside the Perimeter, Wab Kinew’s NDP would have been cruising toward a massive victory, perhaps of record proportions.

That was a year ago, and the situation has changed. The NDP lead has shrunken significantly, to the point where Probe found this past June that the Tories and NDP were tied with 41 per cent support province-wide. Inside Winnipeg, Probe determined that the NDP’s 27-point lead a year ago had been cut to 16 points (48-32). That’s still a big margin, but it means that the Tories would likely hold some of their seats inside the Perimeter Highway.

Such an outcome appeared even more likely in late July, when a poll by Mainstreet Research found that the Tories had recovered to hold a four-point (42-38) lead province-wide.

As a consequence of the Tories’ rebound in support, the prospect of an easy NDP coronation has vanished. The current consensus among political observers throughout the province is that the election is too close to call, and that there is a possibility that neither the Tories nor the NDP may emerge with a majority of seats. That would result in a minority government, with the third-place Liberals deciding which party will govern the province until the next election.

Such a scenarios is a possibility, but so is a Progressive Conservative or New Democratic Party majority. Any of those three outcomes could happen on Oct. 3, and it’s far too soon to know which one it will be. That’s because there are four weeks of campaigning to happen before election day, and a lot can change over that period of time.

As we look forward to the next four weeks, the battle lines already appear clear. For the Tories, the argument is that life would be worse under the NDP — that taxes would be higher and, based on the performance of the previous NDP government, health-care wait times would be even longer and education outcomes would be even worse.

For the NDP, the core argument is that a government under its leadership would repair our broken health-care and education systems by ending the cuts imposed by seven years of Tory government austerity. Indeed, the NDP have already made a number of commitments to reverse cuts and fund the hiring of many more staff.

For the Liberals, who have already released a number of reasonable policy proposals, the argument is that they have an important centrist role to play in Manitoba politics. If Manitobans agree, Liberal MLAs could hold the balance of power in a minority government, giving them influence over the government’s policy decisions.

For most Manitobans, the ballot box question will be whether they believe an NDP government would really be an upgrade over the current PC government. For others, the question will be based upon their individual economic interests. Public sector union members may believe that an NDP government would result in higher wages and better working conditions, but non-union members may believe that a new Tory government would reduce taxes and make life more affordable.

Campaigns matter. As Manitobans, we share the duty to pay close attention to the promises each party makes, to give them serious thought and consideration and to decide which candidate to vote for based upon what is best for each of us, for our families and for the future of our province.