Lower population numbers mixed blessing for Canada

For the third straight quarter, Canada’s population has fallen. According to data released last week by Statistics Canada, the nation’s population dropped by 55,025 people between Jan. 1 and April 1 of this year. That followed a decline of more than 103,000 people in the final three months of 2025. As of April 1, Canada’s total population was estimated by StatCan to be 41,417,056, including citizens, permanent and temporary residents, which is approximately 200,000 fewer than a year ago.

How has this happened? StatCan points to three key factors. First, there was a “natural decrease” in the population, as 155 more people died during the first quarter than were born during that time frame. That reflects both a lower birth rate and aging population, and is a significant change from the first quarter of 2025, when there was a net “natural increase” of 983 people.

Second, the federal government’s lower immigration targets appear to be having an impact. The nation welcomed 83,149 permanent immigrants in the first quarter of 2026. That’s a 20.2 per cent lower than the same period last year, when the number of new permanent residents was pegged at 104,210.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the number of non-permanent residents (including foreign workers and students) plunged by 117,879 people in the first quarter of 2026, marking the third consecutive quarter in which the population of that group has declined. As of April 1, the total number of temporary residents in Canada was estimated to be 2.56 million people, or 6.1 per cent of the nation’s total population. That’s moving toward the new federal immigration targets, which include a goal of reducing the number of temporary residents to not more than five per cent of the total population.

The new population numbers may be welcomed by many in the country who are concerned about the impact of previous years’ high immigration levels on housing prices and availability, health-care wait times and overcrowded classrooms. They argue that a lower population, especially fewer temporary residents, is resulting in lower housing prices in many areas of the country, increased availability of rental accommodation, more jobs for young people, and the potential for an increase in GDP per capita.

That may sound like good news, but there is also rising concern regarding the negative economic impact of a falling population. With the “baby boomer” generation aging into retirement and leaving the workplace, a challenge impacting many western nations, we have entered a period in which retirement rates and a declining birth rate combine to result in not having enough people available to fill all the job vacancies.

The problem has been exacerbated by the fact that our education system has also failed to train enough people to fill those jobs, including doctors, nurses, engineers, pilots and skilled tradespeople. In many instances, we implemented admission barriers and quotas, despite the knowledge that we weren’t graduating enough students to fill the expected vacancies. With all of the major infrastructure projects planned for the next decade, can we be sure that we will have the workforce to build those roads, pipelines, nuclear reactors and other facilities?

For years, it was assumed that the recruitment of skilled immigrants would be an easy solution for any labour shortage, but that assumption is now undermined by the reality the there is a worldwide competition for skilled immigrants and that, even if they come here, they may not stay.

To make matters worse, many employers throughout the country, including here in Brandon, are struggling to address labour shortages at every level of their respective operations. Without all those newcomers, many of whom are temporary residents, it is fair to ask who would fill the jobs they are currently doing.

Beyond those factors, there is also the impact that lower numbers of temporary residents are having on Canada’s post-secondary educational institutions. The lower quota has had a severe impact on the revenues of those institutions, including Brandon University and Assiniboine College, and that affects their viability.

All of this points to the care that is required in setting Canada’s immigration target levels, and the need for constant monitoring and adjustment. Our health care, education and prosperity depend on it.