National Viewpoint — Election could hinge on ‘change vote’

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 17/10/2015 (4022 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

A recurrent theme during this federal election campaign points to a fairly pervasive and growing desire for change among Canadian voters.

How seriously should we take these claims? Are voters likely to act on their desire for change? Not to mention, will they even show up to the polls on election day? What makes Canadian voters tick? And how will they make up their minds? Will they vote for the party they prefer, or will they be swayed to vote purely on strategic grounds?

Our evidence from the recent Alberta provincial election suggests the so-called change vote should not be readily dismissed. Recall prior to the last Alberta election, voters had a fairly lengthy and unshakable tendency to elect consecutive Conservative governments. So if there was one place we might have expected desires for change to be easily sidelined, it was in Alberta. But the electoral outcome in that province suggests, even in the most unlikely contexts, change is always possible.

Similar to the current federal context, the last Alberta election campaign featured significant numbers of Albertans who felt it was time for a change, but only about half (47 per cent) of the Alberta electorate voted for a party that was different from the one they had voted for in the past. So not every voter who says they want change is likely to walk the talk. But then again, many of these voters did sever strong partisan ties in order to redirect their vote. And the potential impact of the change vote is certainly large enough to have government-altering effects.

However, it still remains to be determined whether the change vote in the federal election will align in such a way that it will favour a particular opposing party as it did for the NDP in Alberta. What is more certain is there is a strong chance voters who say they want change will turn up at the polls on Monday.

In fact, our evidence shows virtually all Albertans indicated they would participate during this upcoming federal election, regardless of whether they wanted change or not. The same goes for those who voted for change. Most of these people not only voted in the last federal election, but they also indicated they will do so again in this election.

So what drives this desire for change? The data suggest, not surprisingly, voters who want change are typically not happy with the way things have been going — especially when it comes to the performance of the incumbent government. About nine in 10 Albertans who voted for change said they were dissatisfied with the performance of the Prentice government. But the disgruntlement these voters felt runs deeper than that.

When compared with other voters, Albertans who changed their vote during the last provincial election were quite a bit less satisfied with the way democracy works in both their home province and in Canada more generally.

Also, these voters were more likely than other Albertans to think political authorities don’t care about what people like them think. So based on the evidence, it is probable people who are deeply frustrated with the way their democracy is working, with the way in which they are represented, and with the performance of their incumbent government, are the most likely to change their vote.

This is not to suggest, however, disgruntled voters are prone to behave in irrational ways.

In fact, the Alberta evidence suggests most voters who switched their support from another party to the NDP preferred this party, its leader and the party’s policies to others. So prior to shifting their support, even those voters who are frustrated and inclined to change their vote as a result need to see viable alternatives they can appreciate and adhere to.

<t$>In addition, there is also a strategic element at play. More specifically, our findings show more than half of those who switched their vote to the NDP during the last Alberta election did so strategically in order to prevent another party from winning. Moreover, the results indicate

as the campaign progresses, voters desiring change become increasingly likely to behave in strategic ways.<t-3>

» Mebs Kanji is an associate professor in political science at Concordia University in Montreal. Kerry Tannahill is a PhD candidate in the department. Their column recently appeared in the Winnipeg Free Press.