Kerry Nation — Federal election in the offing?

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 31/12/2010 (5691 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

In spite of Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff’s warnings, betting on the likelihood of a federal election any time soon is a mug’s game.

I suspect the party leader viewed by Canadians as that person who forced the election will be punished so severely that his job security will not extend much beyond voting day.

Ignatieff recently stated his party’s views and those of the Conservatives are so philosophically different that it is highly unlikely the Libs could support a Tory budget.

This would, of course, make an election likely given the precarious nature of a minority government. Given Ignatieff’s history of rash statements and threats, I urge caution lest he lose whatever remaining credibility he has left.

There are only so many times even a Harvard-educated intellectual can cry wolf.

Canadians rarely cotton to such threats, especially when the person making them has a history of brinksmanship.

More importantly, few Canadians desire yet another federal election.

Even if the Liberals vote against the budget, an election isn’t a certainty. Voting down a money bill, traditionally a vote of non-confidence, would require assistance from the NDP and Bloc. Each of these opposition parties must be convinced of their election prospects.

Short of projecting major gains, why force an election? Where’s the upside?

According to Tory sources, the party is seriously examining its prospects in 190 ridings nationwide, with roughly half of these seats in Ontario. They currently hold 143 seats nationally while the Grits have 77 seats. A party needs 155 seats to win a majority in the 308-seat House of Commons.

If one sits down and does the math, it’s reasonable to suggest a slight majority is conceivable.

The Conservatives literally own the Prairies and most of rural Canada. They enjoy strong support in the bedroom communities surrounding Toronto, but for the Tories to win a big majority, they need to sweep these suburban areas.

I’m not confident the momentum is out there to believe such a sweep is likely.

Every party polls constantly in an effort to gauge support. The Conservatives obviously are comfortable with their base and see themselves competitive in another 50 ridings.

At the same time, I believe Canadians are reasonably content with the Harper government. Those who aren’t content with Harper weren’t content before.

In other words, has the opposition gained any support? Have the Tories? Again, what justifies an election call?

Stephen Harper has been prime minister for four years. I doubt there’s much about him we don’t know. Our opinions about him are formed.

Thus, short of a surprise or scandal, I don’t see any reason for a major electoral swing.

Things are more interesting here in Manitoba. The Liberals are showing a resurgence in the polls, and so too are the Hugh McFayden-led Tories. I believe the Liberal strength is misleading while the Tory support is much more solid.

Now that longstanding Liberal MLA Kevin Lamoureaux has migrated to greener pastures in Ottawa, leader Dr. Jon Gerrard remains the sole Grit in our legislature.

While Gerrard’s capable of making noise, it is simply too much to expect him to make a significant difference in the next provincial election.

It’s difficult converting popularity into seats. Gerrard needs a credible team of candidates but time is fleeting.

He needs to sell potential candidates on the likelihood of winning. Otherwise, why run?

A party can always find sacrificial lambs — trust me on this — but serious candidates aren’t in it to lose. When the co-captain of the team decides to go elsewhere, that’s not a positive sign to potential candidates.

Let’s compare the storylines — federal politics versus Manitoba. The national story is simple — short of a major mistake, everything is status quo.

The unfolding provincial story is equally uncomplicated — we’re tired of the same old people and the same old stories.

NDP apologists can say whatever they want, but the reality is that financial mismanagement like the $115-million stadium (should I say $190 million?), the $17-million bridges that cost $28 million, and the $270,000 "affordable" housing units fit a storyline.

Simply put, the NDP can’t manage.

As we know from our recent municipal election, once voters accept the need for change, then incumbents are in serious trouble. The biggest lesson we should take from the municipal vote is that folks were ready to throw out the old and bring in the new.

Ideology meant nothing — NDPers Decter Hirst and Chaboyer in, Tories Fawcett and Isleifson in. NDPer Black out along with Tory-leaning Jessiman. Liberal Montague in, Tory-leaning Margo Campbell out.

Don’t read too much into ideology — voters certainly didn’t. The common thread from the election was obvious: out with the same old faces.

The provincial polls will fluctuate, and the election result is far from certain, but Greg Selinger and company are staring down an anti-incumbent prairie wildfire.

The only question is whether a big enough Dipper firewall can be built in Winnipeg. 2011 promises to be very interesting.

 

Kerry Auriat is a lifelong Brandon resident and a partner in a local brokerage firm.