Refusal to unlock code red a calculated risk

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 08/01/2022 (1458 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

An editorial published in the Sun earlier this week (Province owes explanation, Jan. 5) pointed out that the number of new COVID-19 cases in the province has increased dramatically, as have the number of Manitobans who have been hospitalized because they are suffering severe symptoms caused by the virus.

The test positivity rate has exploded beyond 40 per cent — which is very likely an understatement because of testing delays — and the number of patients in intensive care units has also increased beyond normal numbers.

Having set out those facts, the editorial asked the question many Manitobans are asking: why is Manitoba not in code red right now?

On Tuesday, Premier Heather Stefanson defended the province’s refusal to move from the current code orange – restricted level to code red – critical status, saying: “Case numbers are on the rise but case numbers maybe mean something different with this variant.”

“It’s all about ‘What does this mean to our hospital numbers?’” she added. “What does this mean for our ICU numbers? We need to keep laser-focused on that.”

At the same news conference, deputy chief provincial public health officer Dr. Jazz Atwal told reporters that “It’s an evolving situation … We don’t have crystal balls. We’re doing the best we can with the information and the resources we have to try and keep Manitobans safe, and to ensure that we’re able to partake in those activities that we enjoy.”

He said that Manitoba won’t move to code red unless it’s absolutely necessary.

Let’s unpack all that, starting with the province’s own criteria for moving to code red status (found online at gov.mb.ca/covid19/prs/system/red-critical.html). They read as follows:

Red: Critical — The province would consider applying this alert level if:

• Extensive community transmission of COVID-19 is occurring and is not contained.

• There are widespread outbreaks and new clusters that cannot be controlled through testing and contact tracing.

• The virus is being transmitted at levels that public health and the health system deem concerning or critical.

We have clearly met each of those tests. There is widespread, uncontrolled community transmission throughout the province. New clusters are materializing by the hour, and our capacity for testing and contact tracing has been overwhelmed.

With a test positivity rate of approximately 40 per cent, the virus is being transmitted at a level that puts our health-care system in severe jeopardy of imminent collapse.

Dr. Atwal claims the public health department doesn’t have “crystal balls,” that the situation is rapidly evolving and that they are doing the best they can with the information and resources they have.

Anybody who has been paying attention during the pandemic knows those claims are 100 per cent hogwash.

The Stefanson government and its public health doctors don’t need crystal balls to predict the future. They have constant access to modelling data that looks at the current situation and predicts what may happen in the coming days and weeks. The modelling is constantly updated as new information emerges.

Beyond that, the four COVID waves have each hit Manitoba weeks after they hit other provinces. That gives us the ability to learn from the experiences of those provinces and make plans before those waves arrived here.

In other words, there is nothing about the omicron variant that is taking anybody in Manitoba by surprise. In December, we saw what was happening in B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan. We saw the terrifying trends in Ontario and Quebec. We knew exactly what was coming to Manitoba.

If Stefanson, Atwal and their team really believe they are doing the best they can with the information they have, they should have read a newspaper. We’ve been warning about the likely impact of the omicron variant on our health-care system for at least four weeks.

Having said all of that, let’s cut through their bullcrap and acknowledge what’s really going on here.

The only reason we aren’t in code red right now is because the Stefanson government doesn’t want us to be. They have cynically calculated that the political risk of doing something — for example, stricter capacity limits for businesses — is higher than the risk of doing nothing.

That’s something to be laser-focused on when you are in line for your COVID test.

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