REGIONAL VIEWPOINT: Preparing to govern often very delicate process

Opinion

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This article was published 13/02/2023 (963 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The next provincial election is scheduled for Oct. 3, and polling results over the past two years suggest the NDP under Wab Kinew is headed to victory. Of course, the party declares publicly it is taking nothing for granted; to do otherwise would sound arrogant and likely cost it votes.

However, if the polls continue to be favourable, the leader and his advisers must at some point turn their minds to the tasks of preparing to govern. But when is the right time for a party anticipating victory to begin preparations to take office and what activities would be involved?

Moving from “stagecraft” (campaigning) to “statecraft” (governing) can be difficult and risky, especially if a party has been out of power for some time. A party anticipating victory must walk a fine line, sending public signals it is a government-in-waiting, while at the same time avoiding any suggestion it is taking voter support for granted.

Compared with the national level and larger provincial systems, transition preparation in Manitoba is typically less planned and less elaborate. A few months before election day, a party anticipating victory will usually appoint a transition committee, which will ideally include individuals with deep experience in the operation of government.

To avoid any furor over planned actions, the committee will work mainly in private. The interval between election day and the swearing-in of a new government is short, usually two weeks, which means pre-election preparation is important.

Often, parties promise a fast start on campaign promises. However, a lack of advance planning can lead to mistakes, communication breakdowns, negative media coverage and even troubles for the rest of their term in office. Transition planning involves not just concrete actions, but also requires a shift in the collective mindset of the incoming leadership group, from an opposition mode to a governing mode.

Poorly prepared incoming parties will find it difficult to take control of the wide-ranging machinery of government, and to begin the process of moving their policy agenda forward. The themes of a throne speech, a lineup of bills and a budget have to be developed, and a decision made on when the new government will meet the legislature.

The premier must decide how large a cabinet there will be. Typically, Manitoba cabinets start smaller and grow over time to arrive at 18 to 20 ministers. Based on campaign promises, the titles for ministers and their departments might be changed to signal new policy priorities and to seek support from external stakeholder groups.

Large-scale reorganizations of the departmental lineup can be disruptive and take time to implement.

In opposition, parties operate a shadow cabinet of designated critics. Wise opposition leaders avoid indicating that “shadow ministers” will automatically perform the same role in the “real” cabinet. Premiers need flexibility to place the right person in the right job. They must also be concerned about “the chemistry” of the cabinet as a group.

In Manitoba, the public service prepares a briefing book on current legislative, financial and intergovernmental issues for the government as a whole and for each department. The book is made available to a new government only after the election, which limits the potential for advance preparation.

By contrast, in the U.K. “access talks” with the public service are offered to the main opposition party at least six months before a change in government. This allows an opposition party to develop an earlier understanding of the “real” challenges facing government and to initiate a constructive working relationship with the public service.

Staffing of the premier’s office and ministerial offices is another set of early decisions that need to be made. Positions in the premier’s office with such titles as chief of staff, director of policy and director of communications are key appointments. Senior campaign staff from the election are not always best suited or available to fill such positions.

It is now customary for hiring of ministerial staff to be co-ordinated through the premier’s office. Bad staff choices can have bad consequences.

There are also hundreds of order-in-council appointments to be made by cabinet on the recommendation of the premier. If the clerk of the executive council, who serves as the premier’s deputy minister, has a partisan past, he or she will likely be replaced.

Most other deputy ministers will be retained, unless the new government lacks confidence in them. It is also a Manitoba tradition for new governments to appoint “political friends” as chairs and members of boards and commissions.

Successful transitions cannot depend solely on the skills of the party leader. They also require slow, careful and quiet advance planning. Finally, the leader must be patient and accept that the full transition to governing will stretch months beyond taking a seat in the premier’s chair.

» Paul G. Thomas is professor emeritus of political studies at the University of Manitoba. This column previously appeared in the Winnipeg Free Press.