Ad loses more votes than it wins

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 08/02/2025 (354 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The editorial in today’s newspaper discussed the changes that have occurred in public opinion polls over the past month. What was once a seemingly huge and insurmountable lead in favour of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives has shrunk to the point where, as the editorial contends, the next federal election campaign could be much closer than many Canadians expected.

The Liberals have apparently recovered from near-extinction to a point where some pundits are suggesting they may have a shot at winning the next election. That would be an amazing comeback for the governing party, and an equally amazing collapse by the Tories.

That explains both the timing and subject matter of an advertisement released by the Conservatives on Wednesday.

As reported in yesterday’s paper, the six-minute ad focuses on the deadly drug fentanyl and includes the explosive claim that Canada has become a “drug manufacturing hot spot.” The first 30 seconds focus on Brandon, with Poilievre saying “Recognize this place? This is Brandon, Manitoba. Population, just over 50,000. A small, beautiful city like many others that dot the Canadian landscape.”

The ad then takes a dark turn, with Poilievre saying “Now imagine if every person in Brandon vanished. Well, since 2016, we’ve lost a city the size of Brandon to drugs. That’s 49,000 Canadian lives lost … Close to eight out of 10 of those overdose deaths involve fentanyl. It wasn’t like this before the Liberals radically liberalized drugs.”

He then refers to a drug superlab in British Columbia that was shut down by police last November, and promises that a Conservative government would enact mandatory life sentences for those convicted of trafficking, production and distribution of more than 40 milligrams of fentanyl.

With the Tories’ lead in the polls now much smaller than it was even a month ago, and the media focused on the Trump tariff threats, it’s no surprise that Poilievre is attempting to regain voters’ attention and support by “changing the channel” to the drug crisis that is unfolding in many parts of the nation.

The problem for the Tories, however, is that the ad could cost them more votes than it gains, for several reasons. First, the ad suggests the Liberals softened drug laws to make fentanyl production easier. That’s not true.

Second, Kelly Saunders was correct (in yesterday’s report) in suggesting that the ad is directed at both Canadian voters and the Trump administration. Trump will almost certainly view it as validation of his claims that Canada is a major producer of fentanyl, and poses a serious threat to the safety and security of Americans.

That will alienate the millions of Canadians who are angered by Trump’s tariff threats and his determination to make Canada the 51st U.S. state. Many voters already view Poilievre as an ideological clone of Trump’s, and are concerned that he would sell out Canada’s interests — to the point of surrendering our sovereignty — if he becomes prime minister. To see him bolstering Trump’s over-torqued fentanyl allegation will cause many to view the Tory leader as willing to sell out Canada by fabricating facts.

That leads to the third reason why the Tories’ new ad could cost them votes: it’s factually wrong. Hours before the ad was posted online, a report by the Globe and Mail revealed that the allegation that Canada is responsible for a “massive” increase in fentanyl flowing into the U.S. is simply false.

On Monday, the White House claimed that 43 pounds of fentanyl had been seized at the Canada-U.S. border in 2024, saying that it amounted to a “massive increase” over the previous year, when just two pounds of fentanyl was intercepted. The Globe and Mail report disclosed, however, that a significant portion of those 43 pounds of fentanyl had nothing to do with Canada.

That portion was seized from Mexican nationals in Spokane, Wash., and, according to the U.S. border agency, has no known connection to Canada. The report says the seizure was included in the “northern border” total solely because of Spokane’s proximity to the border and the involvement of northern border patrol staff in the investigation.

Compared to the amount of fentanyl entering the U.S. from Mexico, the amount entering from Canada is minuscule. The greater danger is the flow of drugs and guns into Canada from the U.S. Given those facts, Trump shouldn’t be threatening to impose tariffs on Canada unless the flow of drugs across the border is stopped. We should be threatening Trump.

That’s the point Poilievre could and should have made on Wednesday. Instead of standing up for Canada, he pandered to the MAGA crowd in America, and the many MAGA supporters in his own party.

It’s no wonder so many Canadians don’t regard him a their preferred leader to stand up to Trump. Given the opportunity, Poilievre might give our country away.